CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T18:24:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Dec 30 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at high levels. Region 3936 (N13W48,
Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest flare of the period, an
X1.5/2N flare that peaked at 30/0414 UTC. As the X1.5 flare was
decaying, Region 3932 (S16W55, Cao/beta) produced an X1.1 flare that
peaked at 30/0429 UTC.
Region 3936 was the most active region, producing six M-class flares and
one of the X-class flares. Regions 3933 (S08W78, Dao/beta-gamma) and
3939 (S17E20, Dso/beta) added three M-class flares each during the
period. A few other regions contributed isolated M-class flares,
bringing the total count to 17 M-class flares and two X-class flares
over the past 24 hours. The majority of the spot groups were relatively
unchanged, with none showing notable growth or decay throughout the
period.

A filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 29/0430
UTC from AR3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen
in NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 29/0624 UTC. Analysis and
modeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with an arrival
at Earth by mid UTC day on 31 Dec.

Additionally, AR 3939 produced an M3.3 flare at 29/1708 UTC that
appeared to have resulted in yet another partial-halo CME, although,
more faint CME first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 29/1800
UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event point towards a likely
Earth-directed component as well, with an anticipated arrival time near
midday on 1 Jan.

Finally, following the X1.5 flare, a subsequent CME was observed in
LASCO coronagraph imagery, starting at 30/0500 UTC and moving NW.
Initial analysis of this event indicated a miss ahead and above the
Sun-Earth line.
 
.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for
an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 01 Jan.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above
background levels, but well below the S1 threshold. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 01 Jan. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storm event will persist through 01 Jan given the
current total disk potential.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters saw a few weak enhancements during the period, but
remained overall at nominal levels. Total field ranged from 2-9 nT, Bz
was mostly positive with a few southward deflections to -7 nT, , and
solar wind speeds saw a gradual decrease from ~400 km/s to under 350
km/s by the end of the period. Phi spent about an equal amount of time
in both the positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Weak enhancements are possible through 30 Dec with periods of sustained
southward Bz. Greater enhancements to the solar wind environment are
likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec, due to the anticipated arrival of the
CME from early on 29 Dec. Additional, yet weaker enhancements are then
possible again on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second CME, also
from 29 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Dec under a mostly
nominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic
storming are likely by mid UTC day on 31 Dec due to CME effects from the
aforementioned asymmetric, partial-halo event from early on 29 Dec.
Lingering G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for
G2 (Moderate) levels, on 01 Jan with the likely arrival of the second
CME, also from 29 Dec. While confidence is moderate to high for a
geomagnetic storming outcome, exact storm strength and timing is lower
due to the nature of the filament eruption.

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